The upheavals in Middle East had a profound effect on the American elections. It is easy to figure it out; the Americans realized the Obama government and its liberal allies in Europe have supervised policies that led to the killing of an American ambassador in Libya, destroyed Syria, led to massive immigration that now threatened their infrastructure, and has led to the rise of radical extremist groups like ISIL that now threatened their lives. Yet the media continues to promote these failed policies, even blaming Russia for the escalation of violence. Even the conservative media like Fox has joined in supporting this flawed international outlook. Things got bad as the American government continued to antagonize Russia, so much that many feared a third world war was imminent.
If the city dwellers, who depend on TV and social media could be fooled, the Americans in the countryside could not. Many of these people have their children in the American military and they know what is going on. Why do you think most of the Military officers supported Trump?
Having analysed the first part of the puzzle above, which is the external dimension, I need to unravel the internal dimension. The internal forces that led to the emergence of Trump has to do with this four-letter word: Jobs.
When Donald Trump announced to automobile sector workers in Michigan that he would slap a 45% tax on any American company that takes jobs to Mexico or any other country, he was relating with an issue of serious concern to them. The rise of globalization has threatened these non-skilled and semi-skilled workers who had depended on mass labour sector jobs.
Globalization has left open the doors for millions of immigrants from Mexico, Asia and Africa, who will gladly do these jobs for a lower pay. American companies are also taking their manufacturing to China, India, and other countries where labour is cheap, as free trade opens doors that were previously closed. All these have led to a conservative, Nationalistic emotion among white, working class Americans, who think their country has been taken away from them. No wonder Trump aptly declared to them: “we will take back our country.”
How did the media fail to pay attention to the yearnings of this silent majority? The truth is that the media knew about it but decided to ignore them in the hope that they would succeed in promoting a ‘noble’ ideology to the people rather than expressing the yearnings of a section of the public
The emergence of Trump has less to do with Trump than a rebellion against the Liberal establishment. It is important to note that this is not an exclusive event. The people in Europe are also tired of liberalism and political correctness. The rise in prominence of right wing politicians in Greece, Germany, France and the UK, and the Brexit referendum should have warned the politicians and the media in the US.
The reason why events in the United States are so important to the rest of the world is because Globalization has carried the American cultural influence to the rest of the world. Also, American and Western policies affect many countries far away from them. For instance, American policies in Libya and the Sahel affect Nigeria’s fight against Boko Haram.
As the world tries to come to terms with Donald Trump’s presidency, many events will unfold across the world in the next few years and many of them are predictable. On the morning of Trump’s victory, leader of the French far right, Marine Le Pen declared: “their world is crumbling, ours is just being built”. I believe she was talking about the rise of nationalism and populism.
Nationalistic movements will rise in Europe and dominate politics. Marine Le Pen will become president of France. Scotland and Northern Ireland will renew agitation to leave the United Kingdom. Italy, Greece and Germany will see more conservative, anti-immigration movements take over. Angela Merkel has just declared her intention to run for a fourth term. She will face a stiff opposition next year.
Western dominance in Middle East issues will gradually yield to Russian and Chinese competition as the United States reduces interference in local issues. The wars in Yemen and Syria will end within six months as the Saudi Coalition and the rebels lose American support. Israel will tear the 2-state idea into shreds and pursue a single state that will eventually swallow Palestine in the distant future.
In Nigeria, foreign support for the government will dwindle but foreign interference will also be reduced. The Nationalistic fire that will sweep across Europe will inspire ethnic feelings in African countries and may lead to intensity in the activities of separatist movements like MASSOB and IPOD. I foresee an intensified clamour for Biafra.
In the United States, racial tension will rise for a while but will eventually improve. However, immigration will be strict and millions of illegal immigrants will find themselves on their way home. The US will lose a lot of influence because it will be more isolated but its citizens will become richer.
Perhaps, Trump’s era will not be as bleak as it seems.
