A Political Masterclass: Nasir El-Rufai’s Calculated Gambit to Unseat Bola Tinubu in 2027

In the intricate chessboard of Nigerian politics, few players wield the strategic acumen of Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State. On May 21, 2025, El-Rufai sent shockwaves through the political landscape with a bold declaration: he is spearheading a coalition to ensure President Bola Ahmed Tinubu “goes back to Lagos” by the 2027 general elections. This statement, reported by Instablog9ja on X, is not merely a rhetorical jab—it’s a meticulously crafted opening move in a high-stakes game of power, ambition, and regional dynamics. Let’s dissect El-Rufai’s strategy, the challenges he faces, and the broader implications for Nigeria’s political future in what promises to be a masterclass in political maneuvering.

The Architect of Disruption: El-Rufai’s Political Pedigree

Nasir El-Rufai is no stranger to navigating Nigeria’s turbulent political waters. Born in 1960, he rose to prominence as a technocrat under President Olusegun Obasanjo, serving as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) from 2003 to 2007. His tenure was marked by a ruthless efficiency—demolishing illegal structures in Abuja and earning the nickname “the Bulldozer.” Later, as Kaduna State governor from 2015 to 2023, El-Rufai cemented his reputation as a reformist, albeit a polarizing one, with policies like the controversial urban renewal projects and his handling of religious tensions in the state.

El-Rufai’s political journey has been defined by his ability to pivot. He was a key ally in the All Progressives Congress (APC) during its formative years, playing a pivotal role in Muhammadu Buhari’s 2015 presidential victory. However, by 2024, cracks in his relationship with the APC became evident. Media speculation swirled in March 2024 when El-Rufai met with the leadership of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a move that culminated in his official defection from the APC by early 2025, as reported by The Africa Report. This defection wasn’t a retreat—it was a calculated repositioning for a larger battle: the 2027 presidency.

The Target: Bola Tinubu’s Fragile Throne

Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s president since May 29, 2023, is a political titan in his own right. Known as the “Jagaban” of Lagos politics, Tinubu built a formidable machine in the South-West, which propelled him to the presidency through the APC. Yet, his tenure has been marred by economic turbulence. Upon taking office, Tinubu implemented sweeping reforms—removing petrol subsidies and floating the naira—policies that, while lauded by international financial institutions like the World Bank, have plunged millions of Nigerians deeper into poverty. The World Bank estimated that subsidy removal alone could push seven million more Nigerians into poverty, a statistic that has fueled public discontent.

Protests, such as the one captured in an X reply by user @asham24766 showing the Edo Civil Society Organisations holding banners reading “Tinubu End the Suffering and Hunger in Nigeria,” reflect the growing frustration. Tinubu’s economic reforms, though structurally necessary, have been politically costly. Inflation has soared, and the cost of living has become unbearable for many. This unrest provides El-Rufai with a fertile ground to sow the seeds of opposition.

Tinubu’s political playbook is well-documented. In 2015, he orchestrated a coalition that ousted President Goodluck Jonathan, famously declaring that Jonathan would be “sent back to Otuoke.” As X user @IfeanyiDeclan pointed out, El-Rufai’s rhetoric mirrors Tinubu’s own strategy from a decade ago—a poetic irony that underscores the cyclical nature of Nigerian politics.

The Strategy: Building a Coalition of the Disaffected

El-Rufai’s announcement of a “powerful political alliance” to challenge Tinubu in 2027 is a masterstroke of coalition-building, a tactic he learned during his APC days. His defection to the SDP signals his intent to create a broad-based opposition that transcends regional and ideological lines. But what does this coalition look like, and how does El-Rufai plan to make it formidable?

1. Leveraging Northern Discontent: El-Rufai’s base is in the North, a region that has historically wielded significant electoral influence. Tinubu’s presidency has been viewed by some northern elites as a betrayal of the unwritten power rotation agreement between Nigeria’s North and South. El-Rufai, a northern Fulani Muslim, is positioning himself as the champion of this aggrieved region. His venture capital firm, launched in December 2023 with a $100 million commitment to boost the northern economy, was a precursor to this strategy—winning hearts and minds through economic empowerment.
2. Exploiting Economic Grievances: The economic hardship under Tinubu’s administration is El-Rufai’s strongest card. X user @Anasmatix’s visceral reaction—“I want Tinubu to suffer… I want his ending to be worse than King Pharaoh”—captures the depth of public anger. El-Rufai can channel this frustration into a populist campaign, promising to reverse Tinubu’s policies and prioritize the welfare of ordinary Nigerians.
3. Courting Disaffected APC Members: El-Rufai’s exit from the APC was not a solitary move. He likely took with him a cadre of loyalists and disgruntled party members who feel sidelined by Tinubu’s administration. By aligning with the SDP, El-Rufai is creating a platform for these defectors to rally around, potentially pulling in other opposition parties like the PDP or Labour Party to form a mega-coalition.
4. Reviving His Technocratic Image: El-Rufai’s time as a minister and governor showcased his ability to deliver results, from the National ID card system to Kaduna’s urban renewal. In his October 2024 Hausa-language broadcast on Freedom Radio Nigeria, he declared, “There is no retirement in politics,” signaling his intent to return as a problem-solver. This image could appeal to voters tired of Tinubu’s perceived failures.

The Challenges: A Fractured Opposition and Tinubu’s Counter-Moves

Despite his strategic brilliance, El-Rufai faces significant hurdles. The SDP, his new political home, is embroiled in an internal crisis, with one faction openly supporting Tinubu, as noted in The Africa Report. This division could undermine El-Rufai’s ability to consolidate power within the party, let alone lead a broader coalition. X user @EjanlaOfnaija’s comment—“Small cartel dey plan against big cartel meanwhile big cartel understand the game better than them”—hints at the uphill battle El-Rufai faces against Tinubu’s entrenched political machine.

Tinubu is no novice. His control over the APC and his influence in the South-West remain formidable. Moreover, his administration has made efforts to address regional tensions, such as his meeting with suspended Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara in London, as reported in the web results. This move suggests Tinubu is working to stabilize his base in the South-South, a key electoral region.

El-Rufai’s polarizing persona is another liability. His tenure in Kaduna was marked by controversies, including his handling of the Shiite Muslim sect and his urban demolition policies, which displaced many. These actions could alienate potential allies and voters, especially in the South, where he will need to build bridges to succeed.

The Broader Implications: A Test for Nigerian Democracy

The brewing showdown between El-Rufai and Tinubu is more than a personal rivalry—it’s a litmus test for Nigeria’s democratic resilience. El-Rufai’s coalition, if successful, could signal a shift toward a more competitive political landscape, breaking the APC’s dominance. However, it also risks exacerbating regional and ethnic tensions, particularly if the North-South divide becomes the central fault line of the 2027 elections.

For Tinubu, the stakes are existential. A loss in 2027 would not only end his presidency but also dismantle his legacy as a political kingmaker. His administration must balance economic reforms with political survival, a tightrope walk that will require both policy wins and strategic alliances.

The Bulldozer vs. The Jagaban

Nasir El-Rufai’s moves to unseat Bola Tinubu in 2027 are a masterclass in political strategy—leveraging regional grievances, economic discontent, and coalition-building to challenge a formidable incumbent. Yet, the road to Aso Rock is fraught with obstacles, from the SDP’s internal crisis to Tinubu’s own political savvy. As X user @AdigunAjitoti quipped, “What can the gathering of flies do to a broom?”—a reminder that Tinubu’s broom, the APC’s symbol, has swept away opponents before.

Come 2027, Nigeria will witness a clash of titans: the Bulldozer from Kaduna against the Jagaban of Lagos. Whether El-Rufai’s coalition can topple Tinubu’s empire or crumble under its own contradictions remains to be seen. One thing is certain—this battle will redefine the contours of Nigerian politics for years to come.