Looking at the 2020 U.S. elections results which now show a massive probability of Biden’s win, the Renaissance Capital (RenCap) analysts have declared that the democrat’s win will in fact attract a total of $700 billion investments into Nigeria and other emerging markets.
A RenCap Chief Economist, Charles Robertson said this.
A report to investors titled: “Biden’s victory, trillions into EM and lockdown” released on Thursday, featured Robertson’s explanation that eventualities may cause people to wonder why the election race was tight.
Robertson at the global investment and research firm stated that he expects Biden to emerge winner this evening (London time) with Nevada remaining to give him a push of six Electoral College votes after 5 pm London time.
Discussing the outlook for Nigeria and other emerging markets, he declared that Donald Trump’s possible defeat is a good development for emerging markets.
He added that global investors will begin re-allocating cash to emerging markets in a massive way.
“The stock of Africa’s Eurobonds only topped $100 billion in 2018, and even if it is only Blackrock’s actively managed part of the business more like $2 trillion in all asset classes (perhaps $700 billion in fixed income), that starts to shift to Emerging Markets this could be very helpful.
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“Our base case is that Foreign Direct Investment will stop being a net positive for the US due to Trump’s defeat, and portfolio flows will also go to EM, and together, these will drive the $ gradually weaker in coming years.
“This becomes a self-reinforcing cycle of emerging market forex appreciation giving good returns to dollar investors, which in turn attracts more money to emerging market and in turn pushes emerging market forex stronger”, he said.
He further stated that Georgia is also looking like another win for Biden as votes have been flowing his way.
“This gives Biden 270 electoral college votes with Nevada, which is what he needs to win and 286 if he does get Georgia. With Pennsylvania votes counted yesterday – and Democrats expecting a big win from remaining mail-in votes, Biden might well end up with 309 Electoral College votes to 229 for Trump (who is likely to win North Carolina).”
Speaking on talk of recounts in Wisconsin, he explained that they have been put down by the ex-Republican governor, Scott Walker, as having no chances of a result change – previous recounts have moved voting tallies by a total of 300 votes but Biden is ahead with a total of 20,000.
Robertson said that even in a case where issues occurring in any states get to Supreme Court, the suspicion would be that Trump will find out that his appointees do not owe him any personal favor to come down on this side.
He continued, “They will instead do what is institutionally correct. It would be surprising if there were so many successful challenges that Trump could keep the presidency. So, our base conclusion from May that Trump would lose because that’s what always happens to incumbents in a recession year will come good,”.
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