Paul Omoruyi blogs at www.diasporascope.com. In his latest piece published on Sahara Reporters, he shares some insight from American Intelligence circles which sheds light on the way our new allies in the War Against Boko Haram think towards Nigeria.
It is worth a read.
Extracts From The US National Intelligence Council Conference – Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
1. Downside scenarios included: Nigeria as a failed state, dragging down a large part of the West African region; some type of ecological downturn; and conflict over water.
2. For instance, 20,000 people have been killed in Nigeria while that country has maintained its democratic façade.
3. Africa has experienced some religious conflicts to date, especially in Nigeria, but one of the great unanswered questions is how much more violence religious diversity will promote. Africa is at the center of many proselytizing efforts worldwide: the Catholic Church has made Africa a priority while Pentecostal and Evangelical Christian movements spend millions of dollars on recruiting large numbers of Africans. Iran has also devoted substantial efforts to fostering its religious and political views in Africa. Finally, Saudi Arabia has spent large amounts of money to export its exclusionary Wahhabi tradition.
4. It is highly unlikely, no matter other domestic developments, that Nigeria will develop a distinct identity as a Muslim state, although religious conflict centered around Islam within Nigeria is likely to continue.
5. Radical Islam will find explicit support amongst a small but increasing number of state officials, as is the case in Northern Nigeria today. More common will be the adherents of radical Islam who find friendly communities grateful for material support from Iran and/or Saudi Arabia, and who can operate with relatively little fear of government detection.
6. The most important would be the outright collapse of Nigeria. While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner. If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a Failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance.
7. If Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan—three of Africa’s largest and most important
countries—actually began to use their revenues from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger, tens of millions of Africans would benefit from reduced poverty, and the impact on the region might be significant.
8. For instance, a few African countries (such as Botswana and Mauritius) have already achieved high growth while a number of other countries (Nigeria) are in significant ways poorer than they were at independence.
9. Paradoxically, other countries may be burdened by their seemingly munificent resource endowment. It is unlikely that the major oil producers (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Sao Tome, Sudan) would have a future significantly different than the ruinous record of petroleum producers to date.
Read his full piece, The Nine Deadly Scenarios Of Nigeria @SaharaReporters
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